KBO League

KBO predictions: win probabilities for Korean baseball

English-language coverage of the KBO is thin. Here is how the model reads Korean baseball, how often it has been right, and the win probabilities for the next KBO games.

Numbers recalculated 19 Oct 2026 from graded fixtures

Short answer

The model has picked the winner in 54% of 921 graded KBO games (63% over the last 30 days). Most KBO games are genuinely close: 56% of this season's predictions gave the favourite under 55%.

Next KBO games

No KBO game with a published prediction in the next ten days. The KBO predictions page updates as soon as the next fixtures are scheduled.

How the model reads a KBO game

Team strength. Every club carries an Elo rating that moves after each result, scaled by the margin of victory.
The starting pitcher. When starters are announced, their recent form shifts the probability. In baseball the starter is one of the biggest swing factors for a single game.
The market. Where bookmaker odds exist, the margin is removed and the market view is blended in.

The output is a win probability for each side — baseball has no draw.

How confident the model gets in the KBO

A single baseball game carries a lot of luck, and the model's probabilities reflect it: this season only 29% of its KBO predictions gave the favourite 60% or more.

KBO predictions since 28 Mar 2026, by the favourite's probability

Favourite's probability	Games	Pick won	Hit rate
Under 55%	401	218	54%
55–60%	110	67	61%
60% or more	207	114	55%

Graded games only. A pick in the under-55% band is close to a coin flip, and the hit rate shows it.

One honest caveat: games where the model was 60% or more sure have been won 55% of the time, no better than the 55–60% band (61%). In the KBO a strong lean is still far from a lock.

KBO next to MLB and NPB

Match-winner accuracy, same model across three baseball leagues

League	Graded games	Hit rate
KBO League	921	54%
MLB	3,643	55%
NPB	835	56%

Beyond the winner, the model also leans on totals and run lines in the KBO: over/under 54% (896 graded), handicap 64% (896 graded).

Recently graded KBO games

LG TwinsvsDoosan Bears

Home 46%Away 54%

KBOHit · 2-4

Samsung LionsvsKT Wiz

Doosan BearsvsLotte Giants

Home 50%Away 50%

Follow the KBO

Daily KBO win probabilities are on the KBO predictions page, live scores on KBO live scores, and the full record on the accuracy page. Standings, box scores and player stats are on Scorebase.

These are statistical estimates, not betting advice.