Honest accuracy tracking
Accuracy report
Every prediction is stored with a timestamp before kick-off and graded when the result is final. Nothing is deleted or re-scored. Predictions created after kick-off are excluded (56 rows seeded on 2026-06-27, the first day of operation).
AI model leaderboard
Same fixtures, seven models
| # | Model | Overall | Match winner | Last 100 | Graded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Scorebase Model Elo + Dixon-Coles + market blend | 58% | 54% (2144) | 67% | 3427/5872 |
| 2 | GPT-5.6 OpenAI | 58% | 55% (1973) | 66% | 3008/5173 |
| 3 | Kimi K3 Moonshot | 58% | 55% (1417) | 66% | 2151/3703 |
| 4 | Grok xAI | 57% | 55% (1644) | 62% | 2289/3991 |
| 5 | Qwen 2.5 Alibaba (local) | 57% | 55% (1365) | 61% | 1756/3067 |
| 6 | Gemini Google | 57% | 54% (1681) | 59% | 2033/3566 |
| 7 | Claude Anthropic | 56% | 55% (1695) | 65% | 2247/3987 |
Overall = match winner + handicap + over/under combined. Models joined at different dates, so "Last 100" compares them on equal sample size.
Scorebase model by league
Match-winner hit rate
| League | All-time | Last 30d | Last 7d | Strong picks | Graded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Premier League | 46% | 41% | 43% | 100% (2) | 188/409 |
| LaLiga | 51% | 54% | 64% | 100% (11) | 189/373 |
| Bundesliga | 48% | 56% | 50% | 75% (8) | 135/279 |
| Serie A | 44% | 69% | 57% | 75% (4) | 159/359 |
| Ligue 1 | 46% | 46% | 33% | 100% (2) | 132/289 |
| Champions League | 52% | 100% | — | 100% (1) | 56/108 |
| MLS | 46% | 37% | 27% | 20% (5) | 204/445 |
| K League 1 | 43% | 50% | 0% | — | 37/87 |
| NBA | 67% | — | — | 78% (464) | 877/1311 |
| NHL | 54% | — | — | 57% (659) | 761/1410 |
| MLB | 55% | 59% | 49% | 56% (1764) | 1898/3472 |
| KBO League | 53% | 54% | 38% | 53% (239) | 446/848 |
| NPB | 56% | 60% | 56% | 58% (401) | 422/755 |
Football draws count as a miss unless the model picked the draw. Strong picks are fixtures where the top probability clears a league-specific threshold.