AI sports predictions for today's key matches
Win probabilities for football, NBA, MLB and NHL from a calibrated statistical model, checked against the market and a panel of AI models. Every pick is timestamped before kick-off and graded on the result.
Today's key matches
The 5 fixtures worth your attention
ComovsVenezia
GetafevsSevilla FC
LaziovsCagliari
LiverpoolvsArsenal
Indiana PacersvsBrooklyn Nets
Today's previews
Como vs Venezia prediction: home form meets relegation crisis
Como are strong favourites at home to a Venezia side in freefall, with the model backing the hosts at 75 per cent to win. The decisive factor is the gulf in current form: Como have won three of their last five matches and sit fourth in the table, whilst Venezia occupy 20th place with just one win all season and have lost their last two games. The hosts' home record—unbeaten with two wins from three—contrasts sharply with Venezia's away form, where they have failed to take a single point from four matches.
Lazio vs Cagliari prediction: Champions face crisis-stricken visitors
Lazio arrive as overwhelming favourites at 71% to beat a Cagliari side in freefall, but the model's confidence rests entirely on the hosts' defensive solidity and Cagliari's inability to score. The visitors have conceded 2.2 goals per game over their last five matches and won just once in that span; Lazio have kept a clean sheet in four of their last five. If Lazio's defence holds—and the data suggests it will—this should be a comfortable home win.
Liverpool vs Arsenal prediction: Gunners' form and Elo edge favoured
Arsenal arrive at Anfield as the model's pick despite Liverpool's home advantage, backed by a 42% win probability against the hosts' 28%. The Gunners' superior Elo rating of 1672 to Liverpool's 1549, combined with their flawless league record and clinical away form, outweigh the traditional pull of Merseyside. The deciding factor is Arsenal's defensive solidity: they have conceded just 0.8 goals per game over their last five matches, the same rate as Liverpool, yet scored 1.4 to Liverpool's 1.0—a differential that typically wins tight contests.
Pacers vs Nets prediction: Indiana favoured despite home struggles
Indiana enters as clear favourites at 76% model probability, a substantial 15-point gap over the market's assessment, yet both teams arrive in poor form—the Pacers have lost three straight at home whilst Brooklyn has now lost five consecutive. The deciding factor will be whether Indiana's superior roster strength, reflected in their 103-point Elo advantage, can overcome the offensive stagnation that has plagued both sides in recent weeks.
Selected automatically: big-league fixtures first, then strong model picks, AI-panel coverage and market data. At most 5 per day.
Football predictions today
Premier League, Champions League, LaLiga and more
Football predictions come with three-way probabilities (home, draw, away), an over/under 2.5 goals lean and a handicap line. Each league page lists the coming week's fixtures with the model's recent hit rate for that competition.
NBA · MLB · NHL predictions
Two-way win probabilities for US leagues
Basketball, baseball and hockey have no draw, so the prediction is a single win probability per side. Baseball uses a Poisson runs model with the listed starters; basketball and hockey use Elo win expectancy with home advantage.
Win probability, explained
A 50/50 match stays 50/50.
Most prediction sites show 85% or 90% confidence on single picks. The maths does not support that. A clear favourite in the Premier League wins roughly two matches in three, and a tight derby is close to a coin flip once the draw is counted. Our probabilities are calibrated to the real variance of each sport, and the calibration is checked on the accuracy page. When the model disagrees with the bookmaker market we show both numbers and the gap, so you can see where the edge is supposed to be.
54% match-winner accuracy over 11,172 graded fixtures
FAQ
Questions people ask about sports predictions
What is an AI sports prediction?
A probability for each outcome of a match, produced by a statistical model rather than a pundit. On this site the model combines Elo team ratings with margin of victory, a Dixon-Coles goal model for football and market-implied odds with the bookmaker margin removed.
How accurate are the predictions?
It depends on the league. Match-winner accuracy across graded fixtures is published on the accuracy page and updated as results come in. A 55% hit rate in football is normal because draws are hard to call. We show the real number, not a marketing one.
Which sports and leagues are covered?
Football (Premier League, LaLiga, Bundesliga, Serie A, Ligue 1, Champions League, MLS, K League 1), basketball (NBA), baseball (MLB, KBO, NPB) and ice hockey (NHL).
Why only a few matches per day?
We publish the handful of fixtures where the model, the market and the AI panel all have something to say. Bulk-generated pages for every kick-off add noise and nothing else. Every other fixture is still listed on the today page.
Is this a betting tips service?
No. There are no tips, no VIP plans and no bonus offers. Probabilities are shown so you can judge a match for yourself. A prediction can be wrong on any single game.
Do I need an account?
No. Everything on the site is free and open, including the full accuracy record.