AI sports predictions for today's key matches
Win probabilities for football, NBA, MLB and NHL from a calibrated statistical model, checked against the market and a panel of AI models. Every pick is timestamped before kick-off and graded on the result.
Today's key matches
The 5 fixtures worth your attention
Houston AstrosvsChicago White Sox
Red Bull New YorkvsSt. Louis CITY SC
New York YankeesvsBoston Red Sox
Tohoku Rakuten Golden EaglesvsFukuoka SoftBank Hawks
Samsung LionsvsHanwha Eagles
Today's previews
Red Bull New York vs St. Louis CITY SC prediction: visitors favoured despite absences
St. Louis CITY SC arrive at Red Bull Arena as clear favourites, with the model assigning them a 50% win probability against a New York side languishing in 19th place. The decisive factor is St. Louis's superior form: they have not lost in 16 matches and are scoring at 3.0 goals per game over their last five outings, a rate that dwarfs New York's 0.6. Even with five players absent or unavailable, St. Louis's attacking threat and defensive solidity make them the team to back.
Yankees vs Red Sox prediction: home form edges a tight contest
The New York Yankees are favoured at 51% by the model, a narrow 7-point edge over the market-implied probability of 56%, suggesting the bookmakers rate them more highly than the underlying data supports. The decisive factor is home-field advantage: the Yankees have won 47 of 81 games at Yankee Stadium this season, averaging 1.74 points per game, whilst the Red Sox have managed only 46 wins in 82 away matches, averaging 1.68 points per game—a marginal but consistent gap that compounds across nine innings.
Tohoku vs Fukuoka: Hawks' form and Elo edge too strong to ignore
Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks arrive at Tohoku Rakuten Golden Eagles' home ground as commanding 59% favourites, a gap that widens to 66% when bookmaker margins are stripped away. The Hawks have won five consecutive matches and sit atop the NPB table with 89 wins, while the Eagles languish in 12th with 55 wins and a -27 run differential. The deciding factor is simple: Fukuoka's away form (40W-3D-24L, 1.84 points per game) is substantially stronger than Tohoku's home form (32W-0D-36L, 1.41 ppg), and the visitors' recent momentum makes this a clear directional lean.
Samsung Lions vs Hanwha Eagles prediction: home form meets slump
Samsung Lions are favoured by the market at 66% implied probability, yet the model rates this fixture as a coin flip at 50–50. The decisive factor is whether the Lions can sustain their four-game winning streak at home against an Eagles side that has lost two of its last five and sits ninth in the table, 71 points adrift.
Selected automatically: big-league fixtures first, then strong model picks, AI-panel coverage and market data. At most 5 per day.
Football predictions today
Premier League, Champions League, LaLiga and more
Football predictions come with three-way probabilities (home, draw, away), an over/under 2.5 goals lean and a handicap line. Each league page lists the coming week's fixtures with the model's recent hit rate for that competition.
NBA · MLB · NHL predictions
Two-way win probabilities for US leagues
Basketball, baseball and hockey have no draw, so the prediction is a single win probability per side. Baseball uses a Poisson runs model with the listed starters; basketball and hockey use Elo win expectancy with home advantage.
Win probability, explained
A 50/50 match stays 50/50.
Most prediction sites show 85% or 90% confidence on single picks. The maths does not support that. A clear favourite in the Premier League wins roughly two matches in three, and a tight derby is close to a coin flip once the draw is counted. Our probabilities are calibrated to the real variance of each sport, and the calibration is checked on the accuracy page. When the model disagrees with the bookmaker market we show both numbers and the gap, so you can see where the edge is supposed to be.
54% match-winner accuracy over 10,470 graded fixtures
FAQ
Questions people ask about sports predictions
What is an AI sports prediction?
A probability for each outcome of a match, produced by a statistical model rather than a pundit. On this site the model combines Elo team ratings with margin of victory, a Dixon-Coles goal model for football and market-implied odds with the bookmaker margin removed.
How accurate are the predictions?
It depends on the league. Match-winner accuracy across graded fixtures is published on the accuracy page and updated as results come in. A 55% hit rate in football is normal because draws are hard to call. We show the real number, not a marketing one.
Which sports and leagues are covered?
Football (Premier League, LaLiga, Bundesliga, Serie A, Ligue 1, Champions League, MLS, K League 1), basketball (NBA), baseball (MLB, KBO, NPB) and ice hockey (NHL).
Why only a few matches per day?
We publish the handful of fixtures where the model, the market and the AI panel all have something to say. Bulk-generated pages for every kick-off add noise and nothing else. Every other fixture is still listed on the today page.
Is this a betting tips service?
No. There are no tips, no VIP plans and no bonus offers. Probabilities are shown so you can judge a match for yourself. A prediction can be wrong on any single game.
Do I need an account?
No. Everything on the site is free and open, including the full accuracy record.