AI sports predictions for today's key matches
Win probabilities for football, NBA, MLB and NHL from a calibrated statistical model, checked against the market and a panel of AI models. Every pick is timestamped before kick-off and graded on the result.
Today's key matches
The 5 fixtures worth your attention
Aston VillavsManchester City
RB LeipzigvsSV Elversberg
ArsenalvsEverton
Borussia DortmundvsEintracht Frankfurt
LaziovsParma
Today's previews
Aston Villa vs Manchester City prediction: City's away form too strong to ignore
Manchester City arrive at Villa Park as overwhelming favourites, with the model assigning them a 63% win probability against a home side languishing in 12th place with just 8 points from seven matches. The decisive factor is Manchester City's flawless away record this season—three wins from three, averaging 3.00 points per game—against Aston Villa's fragile home form of one draw and two losses. City's seven-game winning streak and superior squad depth, despite injury absences, make them the clear choice.
RB Leipzig vs SV Elversberg prediction: home form meets injury crisis
RB Leipzig are favoured at 67% to beat SV Elversberg, a 53-point gap over the visitors' 14%, yet the hosts arrive depleted by six injury absences and have lost their last match. The deciding factor will be whether Leipzig's perfect home record (3W-0D-0L, 3.00 points per game) can withstand a Elversberg side carrying genuine momentum—the visitors have won their last match and conceded just 1.8 goals per game across five outings.
Arsenal vs Everton prediction: home form meets injury crisis
Arsenal are heavy favourites at 67 per cent to win, a seven-point gap over the market's 66 per cent, but the fixture turns on whether their depleted defence can contain Everton's limited attacking threat. The hosts have won all three home games this season without conceding, yet they are without six players—including key defenders—while Everton arrive in poor form and have managed just one win in seven outings. The model backs Arsenal as a strong pick, but injury depth will test that conviction.
Dortmund vs Frankfurt prediction: hosts' unbeaten run meets injury-hit visitors
Borussia Dortmund are clear favourites at home, with the model backing them at 72 per cent to win—an 8-point edge over the market's 64 per cent. The decisive factor is Dortmund's defensive solidity: they have conceded just 0.8 goals per game across their last five matches, while Frankfurt have leaked 2.6, a vulnerability that should be exposed by a Dortmund side in commanding form at the Signal Iduna Park.
Lazio vs Parma prediction: home form meets away collapse
Lazio are heavy favourites at 69% to beat a Parma side that has won just once in seven matches and remains winless on the road this season. The decisive factor is the gulf in current trajectory: Lazio have lost none of their last seven games whilst Parma have lost two of their last three, and the hosts' home record (2.33 points per game) stands in stark contrast to the visitors' away record (0.00 ppg). Both teams carry significant injury burdens, but Lazio's depth and momentum should prove decisive.
Selected automatically: big-league fixtures first, then strong model picks, AI-panel coverage and market data. At most 5 per day.
Football predictions today
Premier League, Champions League, LaLiga and more
Football predictions come with three-way probabilities (home, draw, away), an over/under 2.5 goals lean and a handicap line. Each league page lists the coming week's fixtures with the model's recent hit rate for that competition.
NBA · MLB · NHL predictions
Two-way win probabilities for US leagues
Basketball, baseball and hockey have no draw, so the prediction is a single win probability per side. Baseball uses a Poisson runs model with the listed starters; basketball and hockey use Elo win expectancy with home advantage.
Win probability, explained
A 50/50 match stays 50/50.
Most prediction sites show 85% or 90% confidence on single picks. The maths does not support that. A clear favourite in the Premier League wins roughly two matches in three, and a tight derby is close to a coin flip once the draw is counted. Our probabilities are calibrated to the real variance of each sport, and the calibration is checked on the accuracy page. When the model disagrees with the bookmaker market we show both numbers and the gap, so you can see where the edge is supposed to be.
54% match-winner accuracy over 10,941 graded fixtures
FAQ
Questions people ask about sports predictions
What is an AI sports prediction?
A probability for each outcome of a match, produced by a statistical model rather than a pundit. On this site the model combines Elo team ratings with margin of victory, a Dixon-Coles goal model for football and market-implied odds with the bookmaker margin removed.
How accurate are the predictions?
It depends on the league. Match-winner accuracy across graded fixtures is published on the accuracy page and updated as results come in. A 55% hit rate in football is normal because draws are hard to call. We show the real number, not a marketing one.
Which sports and leagues are covered?
Football (Premier League, LaLiga, Bundesliga, Serie A, Ligue 1, Champions League, MLS, K League 1), basketball (NBA), baseball (MLB, KBO, NPB) and ice hockey (NHL).
Why only a few matches per day?
We publish the handful of fixtures where the model, the market and the AI panel all have something to say. Bulk-generated pages for every kick-off add noise and nothing else. Every other fixture is still listed on the today page.
Is this a betting tips service?
No. There are no tips, no VIP plans and no bonus offers. Probabilities are shown so you can judge a match for yourself. A prediction can be wrong on any single game.
Do I need an account?
No. Everything on the site is free and open, including the full accuracy record.